Characteristics of Precipitable Water Vapor of Mesoscale Convective System During Heavy Rainfall over Greater Jakarta, Indonesia, March 3-4 2025

Authors

  • Prasetyo Firdianto Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur; Meteorological Station of Tanjung Perak, Indonesia Agency of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Kalimas Baru No. 97B Port of Tanjung Perak, Surabaya, Jawa Timur, Indonesia
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0569-4123
  • Bagus Satrio Wicaksomo Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1581-7242
  • Asep Adang Supriyadi Department of Sensing Technology, Republic of Indonesia Defence University, Area of Indonesia Peace and Security Centre (IPSC) Sentul, Bogor, Jawa Barat
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1103-6669
  • Nanang Yulian Department of Defence Science, Republic of Indonesia Defence University, Area of Indonesia Peace and Security Centre (IPSC) Sentul, Bogor, Jawa Barat
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5266-1534
  • Bangun Muljo Sukojo Geospatial Laboratory, Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, ITS Campus Sukolilo, Surabaya, Jawa Timur
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2985-7998
  • Danang Eko Nuryanto Indonesia Agency of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Angkasa I No. 2, Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat
    Indonesia     https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9637-5063

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.13886

Keywords:

Mesoscale Convective System, Precipitable Water Vapor, GNSS, Extreme rainstorm, Heavy rainfall

Abstract

Across the Indonesian Maritime Continent, pronounced convective activity frequently initiates cloud systems that can further organize and evolve into mesoscale convective system (MCS). This triggers extreme weather and flash flooding; for example, on March 3-4, 2025 in Greater Jakarta. This study investigates the impact of such systems on precipitable water vapor (PWV) using GNSS observations, the ERA5 reanalysis model, and Himawari satellite data. The datasets include rainfall observations, GNSS RINEX data, ERA5 reanalysis, GPM satellite precipitation, and brightness temperature from Himawari-8 channel 8. Analysis was conducted on variability, timeseries, scatter , boxplots, bias, MAE, RMSE standard deviation, correlation, and coefficients of determination. The results indicate that PWV exhibits marked fluctuations that align with the MCS period. The distance of observation and MCS track have a significant influence on modulating PWV, whereas PWV has a weak correlation with MCS intensity. Consistent fluctuations were detected in both the GNSS and ERA5 derived PWV, although GNSS demonstrated higher sensitivity in describing PWV fluctuation compared to ERA5. Variation in brightness in the upper-level moisture demonstrate consistent with PWV, athough the correlation remains weak. MCSs to enhanced rainfall, which can trigger extreme weather conditions and flash flooding.

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2025-11-16

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2026-03-03

Published

2026-03-05

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Vol. 40 No. 1 (2026): April 2026

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