Flood Risk Analysis Using Spatial Synthetic Population in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.v39i3.13611Keywords:
Spatial synthetic population, Global Human Settlement Layer, Flood risk, Upper Bengawan Solo, AHP, Social vulnerability, flood mitigationAbstract
This study develops a spatial synthetic population (SSP)-based computational model to produce realis-tic, high-resolution flood-risk maps for the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed. It combines Global Hu-man Settlement (spatial distribution) with local population statistics (attributes). The SSP is created for flood risk mapping in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed (BSH) using a 100 m grid from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) GHS-POP R2023A. Synthetic individuals are strategically placed around the pixel centre (radius ≤ 100 m), and each is assigned demographic attributes (age, gender, ed-ucation, occupation) validated against official county-level data. Social vulnerability is calculated through weighted aggregation (AHP) across four attributes; individual scores are combined with flood hazard intensity at each location to produce a risk index for each person. Validation shows that (i) the SSP aligns closely with reference statistics: gender and age are nearly identical (MAE ≈ 0.01–0.02%), with slight deviations in occupation (MAE 6.52%) and education (MAE 4.89%), (ii) the overall suita-bility of the SSP compared to GHS counts at pixel samples, and (iii) location plausibility testing using ESRI Sentinel‑2 Land Cover (10 m). Results indicate that (i) the SSP aligns well for gender, moderately for education and occupation, but shows significant misalignment in age, (ii) 91.96% of SSP points are in built-up land, suggesting high spatial accuracy. Medium- to high-risk patterns are mainly along the main river corridors and peri-urban areas, while rural non-built zones are mostly low- to medium-risk. These findings suggest that this methodology is scalable, reproducible, and suitable for data limited regions, enabling the production of detail risk maps that can guide mitigation and preparedness efforts.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Musiyam, Jumadi Jumadi, Vidya Nahdhiyatul Fikriyah, Heni Masruroh, Ema Dwi Septiyani, Choirul Amin, Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir, Farha Sattar, Muhammad Nawaz
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