Researching international migrant workers is a critical endeavour because these individuals exist at the intersection of global economic opportunity and extreme personal vulnerability. The phenomenon of labour migration to other countries is often considered an alternative solution to address issues such as unemployment within a nation (Puspitasari & Kusreni, 2017). However, this movement of people is not spontaneous; instead, it is influenced by a multitude of factors. Migration is often explained through the push–pull framework. There are a myriad of economic and non-economic forces behind the decision to migrate. Migrants can be “pushed” out of their home countries due to deteriorating economic conditions or political unrest. Conversely, migrants are often “pulled” into destinations that offer high wages, good health care, strong educational systems, or linguistic proximity. In making their decision, individuals compare the net benefits of migration to the costs.

Migrant workers have an important role in the economy. Indonesian migrant workers are often hailed as "remittance heroes" for sending home billions of dollars, yet they return to an unproductive period where they struggle to compete in local job markets ((Maksum, 2021); (U.N.D.P., 2024)). Based on Bank Indonesia data and information released by the relevant ministry (BP2MI/Ministry of P2MI), total remittances from Indonesian Migrant Workers (PMI) in 2024 reached USD 15.7 billion, equivalent to approximately IDR 251.5 trillion to IDR 263.8 trillion. It is the second-largest contributor to the country's foreign exchange after oil and gas. However, these "heroes" often remain in a precarious position, facing habitual abuse during recruitment, work, and repatriation (Maksum, 2021). For this reason, it is necessary to study what factors influence the decision to become an international migrant worker. By better understanding the forces that affect specific migrant flows (e.g., demographic characteristics, migrant networks, and economic conditions), policymakers can set policies to target (or reduce) certain types of migrants.

Data presents the placement of Indonesian Migrant Workers by District/City for the period 2021-2023. The 26 districts/cities are due to the highly concentrated nature of Indonesian labor migration. BP2MI data only record formal migrant worker deployments, which are geographically clustered in specific sending regions. Indonesian Migrant Workers (PMI) originate from 25 cities/districts.  Figure 1 illustrates the number of migrant workers by their district/city of origin. The number of Indonesian international migrant workers has increased significantly from 2021 to 2023, based on data from several districts and cities. The total number of migrant workers grew from 50,816 in 2021 to 125,947 in 2022, and further to 171,634 in 2023. This rapid increase is particularly evident in key regions. Indramayu consistently had the highest number of migrant workers throughout this period, with its numbers rising from 5,262 in 2021 to 19,178 in 2023. Other districts like Lombok Timur, Cilacap, and Lombok Tengah also showed a substantial surge in their migrant worker populations. These figures highlight a strong and growing trend of Indonesians seeking employment abroad, with a few specific regions serving as major hubs for this migration.

The number of Indonesian migrant workers during the 2021-2023 period, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-COVID period, rose from 50,816 in 2021 to 125,947 in 2022, and further to 171,634 in 2023. The average number of PMIs also increased from 1,952 in 2021 to 6,784 in 2023. In essence, while the pandemic initially led to mass repatriations and a halt in migration, the subsequent global economic recovery created a renewed demand for labor, coinciding with continued economic pressures and limited opportunities within Indonesia. This combination has driven the significant increase in Indonesian labor migration post-COVID. Figure 2 presents both the average and total number of PMIs

Individuals' decisions to migrate for labor are influenced by a complex interplay of various socio-economic factors, often categorized as "push" factors (reasons to leave the origin country) and "pull" factors (attractions of the destination country). These factors can be broadly grouped into economic motivations (Sayono et al., 2018), social dynamics, and individual characteristics, with some influence from governmental and institutional policies. Poverty has long been recognized as one of the strongest push factors in migration decisions. Households living in poverty tend to perceive migration as a survival strategy to secure better income and reduce vulnerability. Poverty emerges as a significant and consistently identified determinant influencing the number of Indonesian migrant workers. Poverty is a substantial and multifaceted factor influencing labor migration, often acting as a primary push factor from countries or regions of origin (Nababan et al., 2022)

During the 2021-2023 period, the number of poor residents in the 25 origin districts/cities of Indonesian migrant workers is shown in Figure 3.  The three districts/cities with the highest number of poor residents among the 25 were Brebes, Malang, Cirebon, Banyumas, and Indramayu. The districts with the smallest number of poor residents during 2021-2023 were Tulungagung, Ponorogo, Madiun, and Trenggalek. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the poverty rate has generally shown a decreasing trend. Recent reports (even as of July 2025, which would cover your 2021-2023 period) indicate that Indonesia's poverty rate has fallen to historic lows in some measurements. For example, a recent BPS report stated the poverty rate dropped to 9.03% in March (year not specified but implies a recent period), which was lower than the 9.22% in 2019 (pre-pandemic record). The World Bank also noted that Indonesia's headcount poverty rate continued its decline in 2022 as economic recovery resumed, falling to 9.5% in March 2022 from March 2021.

The influence of poverty on migrant workers presents a two-sided coin that creates the 'poverty paradox' for migrant workers from developing countries (Uddin & Mohammed, 2022). This indicates that while poverty is a strong driver of migration, prompting individuals to seek economic improvement and send crucial remittances, this pursuit often comes at the cost of significant human security challenges (Kusumawati, 2024). Migrants often face poor living conditions and economic hardships in host countries, which can perpetuate their poverty status. This is particularly true for illegal migrants who live in precarious conditions. Migrants frequently face exploitation, unsafe working conditions, and social marginalization, both abroad and upon their return, sometimes leading to a cycle where the initial escape from poverty can trap them in new forms of vulnerability and hardship.

Migration is a means to improve social and economic conditions, but living conditions are still poor. There are many uncertainties, such as refugees and asylum seekers in welfare states may still experience poverty due to ineffective social policies and high levels of unemployment, and discrimination in certain regions (Suryaningsih et al., 2023). The conditions make it more difficult to escape from poor living conditions. Moreover, the economic shock of COVID-19 has created challenges and vulnerabilities during and beyond it. There is a push for a decrease in the number of migrants observed as a border control approach in Indonesia's migration policy (Arifin et al., 2024)

Migration is often explained using the push-pull framework, which identifies poverty, income gaps, education, and wage differences as key factors. Poverty is widely seen as one of the main reasons people decide to migrate. Some scholars argue that extreme poverty may also limit migration because households cannot afford the upfront costs of migration(Lukasiewicz, 2017). Previous studies also highlight that poverty often acts as a structural driver of migration, particularly in rural and less developed provinces of Indonesia(Puspitasari & Kusreni, 2017). Households in poverty often view migration as a way to survive, seeking better income and reducing their vulnerability. Research shows that poverty in rural and underdeveloped areas of Indonesia has led to an increase in migrant workers going abroad (Xu et al., 2024). However, extreme poverty can also prevent migration because individuals may not be able to pay for the initial costs of moving. Therefore, it is expected that poverty has a significant effect on the number of Indonesian migrant workers. Figure 4 shows a counterintuitive inverse relationship between poverty and migrant worker deployment over 2021–2023. While the number of migrant workers increases sharply, the poverty headcount steadily declines. At face value, this contradicts the classic push-factor narrative where higher poverty is expected to generate higher migration. Instead, the pattern suggests a poverty–migration paradox: migration expands as poverty falls, not rises. This is interesting to study empirically, whether the paradox of migrant poverty is proven during the pandemic and post-pandemic transition.

Other factors also affect migrant workers, including income, education, and wage differentials. Regional income, represented by Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), reflects the economic capacity of a region. A higher GDP may reduce labor outmigration by providing more employment opportunities domestically. Conversely, greater household income can also increase migration, since it provides the necessary financial resources to finance overseas job placement (Uddin & Mohammed, 2022). Empirical evidence suggests (Wajdi et al., 2017). Therefore, regional income is hypothesized to significantly affect the number of migrant workers. (M. Faizin, 2020).

Regional income, represented by Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), reflects the economic capacity of a region. Higher GRDP may reduce labor outmigration by providing more domestic employment opportunities. Conversely, greater household income can also increase migration, since it provides the necessary financial resources to finance overseas job placement (Uddin & Mohammed, 2022). Empirical evidence suggests that regional income disparities across provinces in Indonesia strongly shape labor migration flow (Wajdi et al., 2017).Therefore, regional income is hypothesized to significantly affect the number of migrant workers.

Education is another important determinant of migration. However, in the Indonesian case, male and female education show different patterns. Male education tends to have a weaker connection with international migration because overseas employment sectors are predominantly dominated by female workers, especially in domestic and care work(Nababan et al., 2022). In contrast, female education has been found to strongly encourage migration, as it increases confidence, access to information, and employability abroad (Arifin et al., 2024);(Robiyatin et al., 2024). This means that while education for men may not have a strong effect, education for women is likely to have a big impact on the number of Indonesian migrant workers. Indonesia provides a unique and massive case study due to its scale and the specific demographics of its workforce (U.N.D.P., 2024). There is feminization of migration, as Indonesia’s migration flow is heavily dominated by women, and recent data from 2021 to 2023 reveals that female education is one of the strongest positive predictors of migration (Nisa et al., 2023).

Finally, the minimum wage is an important labor market policy instrument intended to improve domestic workers’ welfare. However, despite adjustments in Indonesia’s minimum wage, the income differential with destination countries remains substantial. This wage gap continues to encourage international migration, as overseas employment still promises significantly higher earnings (Puspitasari & Kusreni, 2017). Thus, minimum wage is hypothesized to significantly affect the number of migrant workers

The research indicates that migration in Indonesia is directed towards more developed regions, suggesting that regional disparities in development are a significant factor in interregional migration (Wajdi et al., 2018). These areas are controlled by social and economic factors (Suryaningsih et al., 2023). The "paradox of poverty" for migrant workers, where migration driven by poverty simultaneously brings benefits and creates new vulnerabilities, was significantly amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic not only highlighted the pre-existing economic and social precariousness of migrant workers but also introduced new layers of hardship and challenges. In essence, the post-COVID era is not merely a continuation of pre-pandemic trends; it's a period shaped by unprecedented disruptions and evolving economic realities. Researching the poverty-migration nexus in this specific context provides timely, critical insights for academic understanding and evidence-based policy interventions. Researching the influence of poverty on migrant workers during and post-COVID-19 is essential because the pandemic significantly exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities and introduced new layers of challenges, highlighting critical gaps in support systems and policy that require urgent attention (Huang et al., 2024). Therefore, this research aims to determine the influence of poverty on migrant worker placement during and post-COVID. Apart from examining the influence of poverty, we will also examine the influence of other factors, namely regional income, gender-specific education, and minimum wages.

Focusing on the Indonesian context between 2021 and 2023 is vital for understanding the structural and individual forces that drive global labor patterns. Researching this field is essential because it unpacks the poverty paradox, where the most vulnerable households feel the strongest push to migrate but face significant barriers. After all, they lack the initial resources to afford the move (Kusumawati, 2024). The timing of this research is critical as the world enters a transition pandemic era to the post-COVID-19 era, which radically shifted the dynamics of labor mobility and exposed new vulnerabilities (Arifin et al., 2024)

Existing studies on labour migration often analyse poverty or income as separate drivers, offering limited empirical testing of the poverty paradox within a unified framework, particularly at the subnational level. In Indonesia, most evidence is based on cross-sectional or pre-pandemic data, limiting insights into the transition from the pandemic era to the post-COVID-19 period migration dynamics and unobserved regional heterogeneity. Moreover, despite the feminisation of overseas employment, gender-disaggregated education is rarely incorporated into migration models, while evidence on the role of minimum wages remains inconclusive. This study addresses these gaps by employing district-level panel data from 2021–2023 and a fixed effects model to jointly examine poverty, regional income, gender-specific education, and minimum wages in shaping Indonesian labour migration.

The main contribution of the proposed research lies in its unique combination of scale (utilizing panel data from 25 districts/cities in Indonesia) and its specific focus on the post-COVID-19 period, aiming to empirically and phenomenologically explore the influence of poverty on migrant workers. While individual components are present in the literature, their integration within this precise research design for the Indonesian context would represent a significant, distinct contribution. Researching the influence of poverty on migrant workers during and post-COVID-19 is essential because the pandemic significantly exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities and introduced new layers of challenges, highlighting critical gaps in support systems and policy that require urgent attention (Huang et al., 2024). Therefore, this research aims to examine whether the poverty migrant paradox occurs in Indonesia during the pandemic and post-pandemic. This study aims to examine whether the poverty migrant paradox exists in Indonesia during and after the pandemic. In addition, it will also investigate the influence of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), female education, and minimum wages on the number of Indonesian migrant workers during and post-COVID.

This study investigates the poverty–migration paradox in Indonesia using district/city-level panel data for the post-COVID period (2021–2023) and a fixed effects model that controls for unobserved regional heterogeneity. The findings reveal that international labour migration from Indonesia is shaped more by regional economic capacity and gendered human capital than by poverty levels alone. While poverty is often assumed to be a primary push factor, the empirical results show that, after controlling for district-specific characteristics, poverty does not have a statistically significant effect on the number of Indonesian migrant workers. This suggests that extreme deprivation may constrain, rather than stimulate, international mobility due to liquidity and cost barriers.

In contrast, regional income (GRDP) exhibits a strong positive and significant effect on migration, indicating that districts with higher economic capacity are better able to finance migration costs and access overseas labour markets. This finding supports the poverty paradox perspective, in which migration is enabled not by poverty per se, but by the availability of sufficient resources at the regional level. Furthermore, female education emerges as a significant driver of migration, reflecting the feminised structure of Indonesia’s overseas employment and the importance of formal skills and credentials in accessing international care and domestic work sectors. Meanwhile, minimum wages show a significant negative effect, suggesting that improvements in local wage conditions can partially reduce migration incentives, although they are unlikely to fully offset international wage differentials.

Overall, the results indicate that post-COVID Indonesian labour migration is driven by the interaction of economic capacity, gender-specific human capital, and local labour market conditions rather than poverty alone. Policy efforts aimed at reducing dependence on overseas employment should therefore prioritise inclusive regional development, expansion of decent local employment, and gender-responsive education and skills policies. At the same time, migration should be managed as a structural feature of development by strengthening worker protection and improving the productive use of remittances. Future research should explore non-linear poverty effects, migration costs, and institutional changes to further refine the understanding of labour mobility dynamics in Indonesia.