Multi-decadal Shoreline Change and Salt Production Exposure in Cirebon, Indonesia: A Cloud Geospatial and Transect-Based Analysis (1995–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.16748Keywords:
shoreline change, salt production, cloud geospatial analysis, transect-based shoreline metrics, remote sensing, Geographic Information SystemAbstract
Coastal salt farming in the Global South is mainly situated in in low-lying intertidal plains, where shoreline migration and morphodynamic variability can quickly manifest as a loss of productive space and disruption of salt-pan infrastructure. In this study, we quantify multi-decadal shoreline change along the Indonesian Cirebon coast during the period 1995–2025 and delineate critical exposure corri-dors where either shoreline retreat or progradation is most likely to cross-cut salt-pan systems, marking areas of intense shoreline mobility and geomorphologic instability. These represent zones of increased rather than direct inundation risk, where shoreline retreat (or progradation) is most likely to cross-cut salt-pan systems. Repeatable geospatial workflow integrated cloud-based multi-temporal optical satel-lite processing was employed, together with transect-based shoreline-change statistics, in order to de-rive the End Point Rate, Linear Regression Rate, Net Shoreline Movement and Shoreline Change Enve-lope within an uncertainty-aware stability framework. Transect classifications are based more on net accretion than net erosion by count, but show a very skewed magnitude distribution, such that local-ized retreat displays larger absolute extremes compared with progradation, yielding slightly negative mean values despite positive medians. Alongshore stratification (west–central–east) indicates that ex-treme values of cumulative displacement and rate are concentrated in the eastern sector, whereas smaller magnitudes and more stable central tendencies are present along the western and central sec-tors. The shoreline changes scale is strongly correlated with the total displacement magnitude, suggest-ing that segments with maximum mobility also show broad positional ranges, as predicted by clustered landscape hotspots. Category-based interpretation adopts these metric signatures and converts them in-to classes of salt-farming exposure, allowing for a spatially explicit basis for prioritization of parcel overlays, field verification and adaptation planning throughout high-change corridors. The findings advocate hotspot-oriented coastal risk management and the use of geospatial decision support tools for livelihood-sensitive coastal production landscapes.
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