Annual Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity in Makassar City, Indonesia (2013-2024): An Integrative Local Climate Zone Framework

Mirnayani Mirnayani; Purnama Budi Santosa; Ailian Chen

doi:10.23917/forgeo.16328

Authors

Mirnayani Mirnayani Master Study Program of Geomatics Engineering, Department of Geodetic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281 https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0886-2448
Purnama Budi Santosa Master Study Program of Geomatics Engineering, Department of Geodetic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2666-2518
Ailian Chen Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7625-3862

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.16328

Keywords:

geospatial modeling, surface urban heat island intensity, local climate zone, fuzzy logic, GIS-based rules, land surface temperature

Abstract

Urbanization is altering the local climate, but 2D models still fall short in representing the drivers of urban heat distribution because they don’t account for 3D factors. To address this limitation, this study utilizes a Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework as a representative model of 3D urban morphology. A three-stage integration methodology that includes Fuzzy Logic, GIS-based rules, and spatial aggregation is utilized to classify the LCZ. By linking the urban transformation, as represented by LCZ, with Land Surface Temperature (LST), this research examines the spatiotemporal trends of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) in Makassar City, Indonesia (2013-2024). SUHII is calculated by subtracting Land Surface Temperatures (LST) in each LCZ class, with LST obtained from LST Landsat OLI/TIRS imagery. SUHII spatial patterns are analyzed using the Global Moran’s Index and the Getis-Ord Gi*. The results showed that converting more than 1,650 hectares of natural landscape (LCZ D and G) into open-to-densely built-up zones (LCZ 6 and LCZ 3) significantly alters the surface energy balance. SUHII peaked at 8.51°C in 2017, but the mean intensity sharply decreased to 0.01°C in 2023, a decrease attributed to El Niño. This structural clustering is confirmed by the high Moran’s Index values (0.70–0.79), a p-value of 0.00, and z-scores consistently above 65, indicating a shift toward thermal homogenization and a progressive reduction in distinct cooling zones. The findings indicate the implementation of a two-track strategy: structural improvement in the highly heat-exposed urban center districts (Rappocini and Mamajang) and the preservation of natural infrastructure within the rapidly developing peripheral districts (Biringkanaya and Tamalanrea) to prevent further increases and expansion of hotspots.

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