Linking Weather Variability and Wildfires Across Tropical Ecoregions: Evidence from Sumatra, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.15980Keywords:
ecoregion, wildfire, Sumatra, precipitation, temperature, soil moistureAbstract
Wildfires in tropical regions exhibit strong spatial variability that reflects differences in ecoregion characteristics and weather sensitivity. This study aims to examine the relationship between weather dynamics and wildfire distribution across six different ecoregion characteristics in Sumatra. MODIS Fire hotspot data were used to analyze wildfire distribution from 2016–2023, combined with ERA5 and SMAP soil moisture data. Negative binomial regression and incidence rate ratio analysis were performed to obtain a statistical measure of the influence of weather. The results show that wildfire occurrence was highly concentrated in coastal and swamp ecoregions, with peat swamp forests (PSFs) accounting for the highest hotspot density. Pre-fire weather analyses showed that swamp and mangrove ecoregions exhibited higher sensitivity to relatively small rainfall deficits and temperature increases compared to upland forests. The negative binomial regression indicated that the strongest weather–wildfire associations were in freshwater swamp forest (FSFs), where weather variables yielded the highest pseudo-R² (0.226). The distinct weather sensitivity of each ecoregion was further explained by the IRR values, which showed strong temperature sensitivity in the Sunda Shelf mangrove (SSM) region and a prominent rainfall-related suppression of wildfire activity in FSFs. The findings demonstrate ecoregion-specific wildfire sensitivity and the need for targeted wildfire management strategies, particularly in peatland and coastal ecosystems in Sumatra.
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